The Aftermath
I'm still digesting the results from yesterday's election and am not yet prepared to say much about it. The Liberals did much better than I expected they would - holding over 100 seats is pretty good for all the bad polling news leading up to election day. The polling methodology this time around is an interesting topic that I might pursue in the coming days.
My first thoughts are that it is going to be interesting to see how the Conservatives balance this minority Parliament. There is no easy (or likely) fit that gives them half the seats except with the BQ, and I have to think that partnering with the separatists would be political dynamite next election cycle, so that's probably out. They will likely have to simply play it issue by issue, which will result in a pretty moderate Conservative agenda getting passed. We'll see.
The Bloc did not fare as well as I'm sure they hoped, losing a handful of seats and quite a lot of the popular vote. I suspect that the coming year or two will show us how much of their support comes from hard-core separatists rather than disaffected federalists. If the Conservative re-birth is good for one thing, it is that it will calm the separatists for a while in Quebec and out west.
I note this morning that Paul Martin has fallen on his sword. It is probably the only way that the Liberals are going to be able to put the taint of the nineties corruption scandals behind them. An astute and honourable move on his part, though I expect that Jean Chretien is choking with laughter this morning.
One final note - the NDP did reasonably well this time around, increasing their popular vote and seat totals, though I'm not convinced that any of the gains are real. Protest votes against the Liberal party will fade away in time and 29 seats can become 19 quick enough - Jack had best be careful.
My first thoughts are that it is going to be interesting to see how the Conservatives balance this minority Parliament. There is no easy (or likely) fit that gives them half the seats except with the BQ, and I have to think that partnering with the separatists would be political dynamite next election cycle, so that's probably out. They will likely have to simply play it issue by issue, which will result in a pretty moderate Conservative agenda getting passed. We'll see.
The Bloc did not fare as well as I'm sure they hoped, losing a handful of seats and quite a lot of the popular vote. I suspect that the coming year or two will show us how much of their support comes from hard-core separatists rather than disaffected federalists. If the Conservative re-birth is good for one thing, it is that it will calm the separatists for a while in Quebec and out west.
I note this morning that Paul Martin has fallen on his sword. It is probably the only way that the Liberals are going to be able to put the taint of the nineties corruption scandals behind them. An astute and honourable move on his part, though I expect that Jean Chretien is choking with laughter this morning.
One final note - the NDP did reasonably well this time around, increasing their popular vote and seat totals, though I'm not convinced that any of the gains are real. Protest votes against the Liberal party will fade away in time and 29 seats can become 19 quick enough - Jack had best be careful.
