What's next?
What to make of yesterdays election results? To me it looks like the electorate wants a change in faces, but not a change in direction. It will be really interesting to see what the Conservatives make of this.
For at least a little while, I would expect no big budget announcements, no huge tax arguments, definitely no discussion of already-settled issues like same-sex marriage. Harper will have a bit of leeway for a few months at least to set up his cabinet and to try to carve out a minority government out of this mess and to lay out a little bit of his agenda as described in the campaign. I expect to see some relatively minor but public proposals like the GST cut and perhaps daycare.
For purely personal reasons I'm really interested in the latter; and I have very little faith that daycare spaces are going to be more available, more affordable, or better. But that's just me.
I don't have a real feel for Stephen Harper yet, what he's all about fiscally and socially. I have a gut feeling that he's not going to really push social conservatism hard; he's more interested in financial and economic reform (deform?). The current minority situation will, at the very least allow him to buy some time from the more strident social conservatives, however I'm sure some leaks will appear. The Conservatives did a remarkable job of keeping the loons out of the cameras this campaign, especially compared to the last election, but I don't think their luck can hold out forever.
If he manages to keep things together for a year or two I expect he will start to get more aggressive on his real agenda, so we'll see more of what he's about then. If all goes their way, they will certainly be looking at setting the table for another election in order to go for the real prize. Only a majority government is going to allow them the room to make the changes they want. To get to that point, the Conservatives are going to have to display skillful management of the opposition and put forward a vision that does not offend the moderate Canadian public too much.
Of course, too much foolishness from the social right-wing can throw all of this in doubt - I'm sure that Jack Layton and whoever takes the helm of the Liberals are going to jump on the first moron to spout off on putting women back in the kitchen or gay marriage.
What's the best we can expect from this minority? I would love to see some beefed-up ethics controls, and maybe a totally independent ethics commissioner that reports to parliament and is not appointed by the PMO. The Conservatives rode the ethics issue so hard that it shouldn't be too hard to hold their feet to the fire on it - provided Opposition parties think it's important enough, that is. It would also be nice to see some of the appointment power of the PMO reduced as well, but I'm not holding my breath - they've been waiting for a long time and there are mouths to feed at the trough.
I know - I might as well wish for a pony while I'm at it. I have a sneaking feeling that the Conservatives were more interested in ethics as a campaign lever than as an actual platform.
The worst to expect is hard to say. The Conservatives could come out really hard, betting the Liberals aren't going to want to rock the boat until after they have a new leader settled in. If that person is Frank McKenna, that means there will have to be time for someone like Brian Murphy to be promised a future Senate appointment and a byelection be held. That might give them time to ram a few tough nuts through Parliament and make their conservative wing happy. I don't really expect this to happen, as it might make them harder to palate come election time.
Whatever the case, the NDP I fear do not have the power that they, and I, would like them to have. Jack got what he asked for - some erstwhile Liberal voters parked their votes with them for the time being, but I expect without stellar performances on the part of his members, that growth may be short-lived.
For at least a little while, I would expect no big budget announcements, no huge tax arguments, definitely no discussion of already-settled issues like same-sex marriage. Harper will have a bit of leeway for a few months at least to set up his cabinet and to try to carve out a minority government out of this mess and to lay out a little bit of his agenda as described in the campaign. I expect to see some relatively minor but public proposals like the GST cut and perhaps daycare.
For purely personal reasons I'm really interested in the latter; and I have very little faith that daycare spaces are going to be more available, more affordable, or better. But that's just me.
I don't have a real feel for Stephen Harper yet, what he's all about fiscally and socially. I have a gut feeling that he's not going to really push social conservatism hard; he's more interested in financial and economic reform (deform?). The current minority situation will, at the very least allow him to buy some time from the more strident social conservatives, however I'm sure some leaks will appear. The Conservatives did a remarkable job of keeping the loons out of the cameras this campaign, especially compared to the last election, but I don't think their luck can hold out forever.
If he manages to keep things together for a year or two I expect he will start to get more aggressive on his real agenda, so we'll see more of what he's about then. If all goes their way, they will certainly be looking at setting the table for another election in order to go for the real prize. Only a majority government is going to allow them the room to make the changes they want. To get to that point, the Conservatives are going to have to display skillful management of the opposition and put forward a vision that does not offend the moderate Canadian public too much.
Of course, too much foolishness from the social right-wing can throw all of this in doubt - I'm sure that Jack Layton and whoever takes the helm of the Liberals are going to jump on the first moron to spout off on putting women back in the kitchen or gay marriage.
What's the best we can expect from this minority? I would love to see some beefed-up ethics controls, and maybe a totally independent ethics commissioner that reports to parliament and is not appointed by the PMO. The Conservatives rode the ethics issue so hard that it shouldn't be too hard to hold their feet to the fire on it - provided Opposition parties think it's important enough, that is. It would also be nice to see some of the appointment power of the PMO reduced as well, but I'm not holding my breath - they've been waiting for a long time and there are mouths to feed at the trough.
I know - I might as well wish for a pony while I'm at it. I have a sneaking feeling that the Conservatives were more interested in ethics as a campaign lever than as an actual platform.
The worst to expect is hard to say. The Conservatives could come out really hard, betting the Liberals aren't going to want to rock the boat until after they have a new leader settled in. If that person is Frank McKenna, that means there will have to be time for someone like Brian Murphy to be promised a future Senate appointment and a byelection be held. That might give them time to ram a few tough nuts through Parliament and make their conservative wing happy. I don't really expect this to happen, as it might make them harder to palate come election time.
Whatever the case, the NDP I fear do not have the power that they, and I, would like them to have. Jack got what he asked for - some erstwhile Liberal voters parked their votes with them for the time being, but I expect without stellar performances on the part of his members, that growth may be short-lived.
