Liberals and NDP: fight to the death?
The coming months are going to be critical ones for the New Democrats. The recent election speaks to an important change in the political dynamic of this country - the resurgence of the Right.
Since the shredding of the Progressive Conservative party in 1993, the right has been partitioned more or less on an east/west basis. The rise of the the Reform Party in the west and the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec guaranteed that what was once the Tory party could never again rise to power in this country. Since the Canadian public for whatever reason cannot countenance a NDP federal government, this meant that the Liberals were ceded power on a permanent basis. Naturally, this was not a stable situation.
For the rest of the nineties', the remnants of the Progressive Conservatives tried in vain to gain traction across the country. Save for a few stalwart Tory seats regained since '93, gains were few to none. So bad was the situation for the federal Progressive Conservatives that a 40-watt bulb like Bernard Lord was considered a leadership hopeful.
Meanwhile, the more socially and fiscally right-wing Reform party continued to consolidate its power base in the West. This pretty much guaranteed that any merger of the two parties was going be a merger in the same sense that a shark merges with a surfer. When the merge occurred in 2003, the selection of Stephen Harper as party leader was announcement enough as to who was on and who was under the surfboard.
The resulting Conservative party is now a much more direct threat to the liberal left of the country than either the Reform Party or your daddies' Tories of the eighties. Why? The Reform and Alliance parties were never a threat to the reigning Liberals. This meant that they were essentially free from having to govern the nation, and indeed free from having to look like they could govern the nation for nearly ten years. This period allowed them to flesh out their economic and social policies without having to seriously justify them to the voting public.
If the recent election campaign is any indication, the CPC spent the time well and the unprepared Liberals were trounced.
Where this leaves the federal New Democrats is the question that most interests me. They did reasonably well by historic standards this election, but I can't help but think that they expected better. I bet Jack is happy that Olivia won in Trinity-Spadina, but I'd bet he'd trade her seat for enough seats to be the Official Opposition. (Shh! Don't tell her I said that!)
That the federal NDP was unable to capitalize on the Liberal electoral malaise tells me that the Canadian voter is still unable to visualize a Prime Minister Layton, however much they might secretly have fantasized about a Prime Minister Broadbent. This problem might prove more than minor for the NDP in the coming months as the Liberals rebuild, because my bet is that the Liberals are going to rebuild on the back of the NDP and steal back at least what the NDP won from them this time around.
So what are the NDP to do? First, they will have to take a page out of the CPC manual and control public statements from the rank-and-file, albeit for a different reason. The Conservatives have done a remarkable job keeping a ball gag in the mouths of their more extreme elements - a feat that prevented a repeat of the last week of the 2004 election where they seemed to only get off their dicks to change feet.
The NDP will need to do this not to silence whackos, but to focus the public on the party's message. And what will be the party message? My recommendation would be that the party spend some money and time to develop counter-plans for every single policy the Conservatives bring forward. At every step of the way, be prepared to step in front of the camera and say "this is what we would do in this case..." and be specific. Note that I'm not saying they should automatically oppose everything the Conservatives put forward. If Harper proposes something useful, vote for it, but if it isn't perfect, and judging from the source it won't be, be prepared to say exactly what you like about it and what you would like to change.
The public does not vote for the NDP because the public does not know the NDP beyond some vague "they're lefty tree-hugger" image. If the NDP does not take the opportunity presented to it by a weakened Liberal party, it will for the foreseeable future be merely the "socially conscious" arm of the Liberal party from which the Liberals can pull a few votes in close races. Why not turn things around right now and make the Liberals the "fiscal tight-ass" arm of the NDP?
Bad governance lost this election for the Liberals, but clarity won it for the Conservatives.
Since the shredding of the Progressive Conservative party in 1993, the right has been partitioned more or less on an east/west basis. The rise of the the Reform Party in the west and the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec guaranteed that what was once the Tory party could never again rise to power in this country. Since the Canadian public for whatever reason cannot countenance a NDP federal government, this meant that the Liberals were ceded power on a permanent basis. Naturally, this was not a stable situation.
For the rest of the nineties', the remnants of the Progressive Conservatives tried in vain to gain traction across the country. Save for a few stalwart Tory seats regained since '93, gains were few to none. So bad was the situation for the federal Progressive Conservatives that a 40-watt bulb like Bernard Lord was considered a leadership hopeful.
Meanwhile, the more socially and fiscally right-wing Reform party continued to consolidate its power base in the West. This pretty much guaranteed that any merger of the two parties was going be a merger in the same sense that a shark merges with a surfer. When the merge occurred in 2003, the selection of Stephen Harper as party leader was announcement enough as to who was on and who was under the surfboard.
The resulting Conservative party is now a much more direct threat to the liberal left of the country than either the Reform Party or your daddies' Tories of the eighties. Why? The Reform and Alliance parties were never a threat to the reigning Liberals. This meant that they were essentially free from having to govern the nation, and indeed free from having to look like they could govern the nation for nearly ten years. This period allowed them to flesh out their economic and social policies without having to seriously justify them to the voting public.
If the recent election campaign is any indication, the CPC spent the time well and the unprepared Liberals were trounced.
Where this leaves the federal New Democrats is the question that most interests me. They did reasonably well by historic standards this election, but I can't help but think that they expected better. I bet Jack is happy that Olivia won in Trinity-Spadina, but I'd bet he'd trade her seat for enough seats to be the Official Opposition. (Shh! Don't tell her I said that!)
That the federal NDP was unable to capitalize on the Liberal electoral malaise tells me that the Canadian voter is still unable to visualize a Prime Minister Layton, however much they might secretly have fantasized about a Prime Minister Broadbent. This problem might prove more than minor for the NDP in the coming months as the Liberals rebuild, because my bet is that the Liberals are going to rebuild on the back of the NDP and steal back at least what the NDP won from them this time around.
So what are the NDP to do? First, they will have to take a page out of the CPC manual and control public statements from the rank-and-file, albeit for a different reason. The Conservatives have done a remarkable job keeping a ball gag in the mouths of their more extreme elements - a feat that prevented a repeat of the last week of the 2004 election where they seemed to only get off their dicks to change feet.
The NDP will need to do this not to silence whackos, but to focus the public on the party's message. And what will be the party message? My recommendation would be that the party spend some money and time to develop counter-plans for every single policy the Conservatives bring forward. At every step of the way, be prepared to step in front of the camera and say "this is what we would do in this case..." and be specific. Note that I'm not saying they should automatically oppose everything the Conservatives put forward. If Harper proposes something useful, vote for it, but if it isn't perfect, and judging from the source it won't be, be prepared to say exactly what you like about it and what you would like to change.
The public does not vote for the NDP because the public does not know the NDP beyond some vague "they're lefty tree-hugger" image. If the NDP does not take the opportunity presented to it by a weakened Liberal party, it will for the foreseeable future be merely the "socially conscious" arm of the Liberal party from which the Liberals can pull a few votes in close races. Why not turn things around right now and make the Liberals the "fiscal tight-ass" arm of the NDP?
Bad governance lost this election for the Liberals, but clarity won it for the Conservatives.
