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David Emerson, fortune teller

I would not have believed it, but David Emerson might actually have been right - he has become Stephen Harper's worst nightmare.

Think about the situation a month and a half ago - Stephen Harper is fresh-faced off the victory podium and giving his son a "go get 'em" protestant-fatherly handshake at the school driveway and all is looking up. Paul Martin has declared that he is too tired to play the game the hard way - from opposition, and the Liberals are stuck in a leadership-induced holding pattern for the next year or so. It must have looked like smooth sailing for a year or two of (self-) vaunted accountable government before the inevitable election call and majority.

Now? He's appointed a senator, disappointed many of his longstanding MP's like Diane Ablonzy, made a Liberal a minister, and spent just about all of the political capital he had saved up from tossing the Liberals out of office. And if that isn't enough, he's actually said (out loud, in front of people) that he's not going to play ball with the ethics commissioner.

David, David, David, you unprincipled bastard. May I never play a game of cards against you.

Harper’s baby going out with the dishwater?

Harper campaigned and won on the basis that the Liberal government was corrupt, and he and his new government were going to clean up Ottawa. His ethical responsibility program struck a chord with many voters who were appalled by the corruption, shown in the Quebec adscam, and general indifference shown by Martin and his cabinet to ethical issues. So voters gave Harper a slim margin to carry out reforms and clean up Ottawa.

Now, out of hubris, Harper is fighting a legally appointed Ethics Commissioner and assuming a position of being above the law.

This politically disasterous move by Harper risks his government, removes from his party the ethical advantage which brought them into Ottawa, and, most of all, reveals Harper as the man many voters thought him to be before the election – rigid, convinced of his righteousness, and intolerant.

Harper’s response is inept and troublesome. Are there no advisors who can make him see that his tactics on this are lose-lose?

He will not win this one. Nor is it important that he does; what he should be doing is carrying out the promises he gave voters, and instituting as soon as possible realistic, workable and effective ethics rules for Ottawa, without loopholes ...

Voters will hold him accountable if he ends up using bait-and-switch tactics on the ethics issue; he won’t get repeat business from them come the next election.

I heard that Shapiro is being sued for $5 million by another conservative.

This seems suspicious. Shapiro is being sued by a conservative, then hears that a month ago Harper is considering replacing him and also the cons ethics package calls for a different way to appoint the ethics guy - would require all party presentation of a slate of candidates and a secret ballot and all of a sudden, voila, Shapira launches an investigation into Harper.

I have a bad feeling that Shapiro himself is in a conflict of interest trying to protect his own ass and abusing his office.

He has never before meddled in political decisions so why now?

I wouldn't say that he hasn't meddled in any decisions - just about everything that he does has political implications of some sort. He looks to me to be pretty pro-Liberal, right down the line from his non-action on Stronach to the investigation of Grewal to the Obhrai affair.

I don't know what the status of the lawsuit is right now, but it was filed in November by Deepak Obhrai. It was actually for that case that Shapiro was found in contempt of parliament.

I don't have any idea what his motivation is. Attacking Harper is not going to help himself in a lawsuit - it might even hurt, and I don't think that he's an idiot. And it's certainly not going to extend his lifetime in the job - if a new method is developed to choose his successor, it could be done relatively quickly, certainly before even a quick election call.

Ooh, that last line might be a total lie. If he can get the opposition parties riled up over Emerson they might be less likely to vote in favour of an amended Ethics Commissioner package and he *might* in fact get to stay in his job longer.

Interesting...

Actually, from reading the CBC's Indepth section he doesn't need the Opposition parties to go along with it - he can dismiss Shapiro 'for cause' by cabinet vote on 'address of Parliament' which basically means he just has to stand up in Parliament and justify the decision. That's where it'll get tricky, 'for cause' is a fairly rigorous standard to meet, and it probably won't be enough to say - he made a decision I didn't like - that's where Shapiro could wind up suing him for wrongful dismissal. Plus, there's nothing stopping the Opposition Parties turning this affair into a vote to censure - which'll make for a black mark on Harpers' permanent record, but I'm not sure what else - maybe a poster with more knowledge of Parliamentary procedure could chime in here and help me.

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